A stochastic model for estimating sustainable limits to wildlife mortality in a changing world

Human-caused mortality of wildlife is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. Assessing the population-level impact of fisheries bycatch and other human-caused mortality of wildlife has typically relied upon deterministic methods. However, population declines are often accelerated by stochastic factors that are not accounted for in such conventional methods. Building on the widely applied potential biological removal (PBR) equation, we devised a new population modeling approach for estimating sustainable limits to human-caused mortality and applied it in a case study of bottlenose dolphins affected by capture in an Australian demersal otter trawl fishery. Our approach, termed sustainable anthropogenic mortality in stochastic environments (SAMSE), incorporates environmental and demographic stochasticity, including the dependency of offspring on their mothers. The SAMSE limit is the maximum number of individuals that can be removed without causing negative stochastic population growth. We calculated a PBR of 16.2 dolphins per year based on the best abundance estimate available. In contrast, the SAMSE model indicated that only 2.3–8.0 dolphins could be removed annually without causing a population decline in a stochastic environment. These results suggest that reported bycatch rates are unsustainable in the long term, unless reproductive rates are consistently higher than average. The difference between the deterministic PBR calculation and the SAMSE limits showed that deterministic approaches may underestimate the true impact of human-caused mortality of wildlife. This highlights the importance of integrating stochasticity when evaluating the impact of bycatch or other human-caused mortality on wildlife, such as hunting, lethal control measures, and wind turbine collisions. Although population viability analysis (PVA) has been used to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality, SAMSE represents a novel PVA framework that incorporates stochasticity for estimating acceptable levels of human-caused mortality. It offers a broadly applicable, stochastic addition to the demographic toolbox to evaluate the impact of human-caused mortality on wildlife.     

Postfire response of flood-regenerating riparian vegetation in a semi-arid landscape

Piles of large wood (LW) deposited by major floods in river corridors can interact with naturally occurring wildfires from uplands to impact the regeneration of riparian vegetation. This study examines the spatial and short-term temporal response of riparian vegetation and soil nutrients to fire along the Sabie River, South Africa, with special emphasis on the effects of burned LW piles. At the study site there were 112 species of plants recorded with 28% of species restricted to the burned plots. As expected, vegetation cover was significantly lower in burned plots as compared with the unburned plots 12 months postfire. There was a significant influence of LW on species richness with fewer species recorded in the LW plots. For both fire and LW treatments, plant cover showed a significant change over three years. After an initial increase from 12 to 24 months (postfire) there was a decline in plant cover after 36 months. Species community composition was distinctly different between burned and unburned plots 12 months postfire, and the presence of LW affected species composition for burned plots but not for unburned ones. Time series ordination of LW plots highlighted the changes in species composition over the three years of sampling. Of trees with accumulations of LW within 5 m of their base, 48% had been killed by fire as compared to only 4% with no LW accumulations in close proximity. Soil-available P was significantly higher in the burned plots and even higher with burned LW while there were no effects on soil total N. There was also a significant positive trend between available P in soils and plant vegetation cover. Soil-exchangeable K was also significantly higher and total C significantly lower in the burned and LW plots. Burned plots also had significantly higher soil electrical conductivity (EC) and soil pH. The patchy nature of the studied fire, whose complexity is exacerbated by the distribution of flood deposited LW, acted to create a mosaic of alternate successional states as the riparian community recovers from flooding and the subsequent fire. We suspect that the resultant heterogeneity will increase ecosystem resilience by providing flexibility in the form of more options for a system response to subsequent disturbances.     

The inertial range “outer scale” and optical turbulence

The crucial parameter used to calculate turbulence effects upon light waves propagating through the atmosphere is known as the structure constant, . As Tatarski has shown, this parameter depends upon the “outer scale” of the inertial sub-range of the turbulence. Recently there have been successful predictions of astronomical “seeing” conditions at Mauna Kea Astronomical Observatory which have increased interest in this subject and in the use of the so-called “Dewan Optical Turbulence Model”. In the case of the Air Force, there has been a longstanding need for such optical turbulence prediction, especially in the stratosphere. In the past researchers have used a relation due to Tatarski, (which plays a prominent role in this model) in order to deduce values of the “outer scale” from measurements. When doing this, they have been surprised to find values very much smaller than expected. The goal of the paper is to explain this unexpected result. As we will show, this result can be explained by two factors: (a) the average turbulent layer thicknesses are smaller than originally believed, and, more importantly, (b) only a minor fraction of the stratosphere is turbulent. In order to arrive at this conclusion, we used the high-resolution (10 m) wind profiles that were originally used to formulate the previously mentioned optical turbulence model. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

The value of patches of intertidal seagrass to prawns depends on their proximity to mangroves

Penaeid prawns were sampled with a small seine net to test whether catches of postlarvae and juveniles in seagrass were affected by the distance of the seagrass (mainly Zostera capricorni) from mangroves and the density of the seagrass in a subtropical marine embayment. Sampling was replicated on the western and eastern sides of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Information on catches was combined with broad-scale spatial information on the distribution of habitats to estimate the contribution of four different categories of habitat (proximal dense seagrass, distal dense seagrass, proximal sparse seagrass, distal sparse seagrass) to the overall population of small prawns in these regions of Moreton Bay. The abundance of Penaeus plebejus and Metapenaeus bennettae was significantly and consistently greater in dense seagrass proximal to mangroves than in other types of habitat. Additionally, sparse seagrass close to mangroves supported more of these species than dense seagrass farther away, indicating that the role of spatial arrangement of habitats was more important than the effects of structural complexity alone. In contrast, the abundance of P. esculentus tended to be greatest in sparse seagrass distal from mangroves compared with the other habitats. The scaling up of the results from different seagrass types suggests that proximal seagrass beds on both sides of Moreton Bay provide by far the greatest contribution of juvenile M. bennettae and P. plebejus to the overall populations in the Bay.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Designing monitoring networks to represent outdoor human exposure

Measurements of outdoor human exposure to suspended particulate matter (PM) are always constrained by available resources. An effective network design requires tradeoffs between variables measured, the number of sampling locations, sample duration, and sampling frequency. Sampling sites are needed to represent neighborhood and urban spatial scales with minimal influences from nearby sources. Although most PM measurements for determining compliance with standards are taken over 24-h periods every third to sixth day, outdoor human exposure assessment requires measurements taken continuously throughout the day, preferably over durations of 1 h or less. More detailed particle size and chemistry data are also desirable, as smaller size fractions and specific chemicals may be better indicators of adverse health effects than total mass samples.     

Migration,remittances, livelihood trajectories,and social resilience

We argue that all aspects of demographic change, including migration, impact on the social resilience of individuals and communities, as well as on the sustainability of the underlying resource base. Social resilience is the ability to cope with and adapt to environmental and social change mediated through appropriate institutions. We investigate one aspect of the relationship between demographic change, social resilience, and sustainable development in contemporary coastal Vietnam: the effects of migration and remittances on resource-dependent communities in population source areas. We find, using longitudinal data on livelihood sources, that emigration and remittances have offsetting effects on resilience within an evolving social and political context. Emigration is occurring concurrently with, not driving, the expansion of unsustainable coastal aquaculture. Increasing economic inequality also undermines social resilience. At the same time diversification and increasing income levels are beneficial for resilience.     

Dufour gland secretion in the harvester ant genus <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pogonomyrmex</Emphasis>

Summary. Dufour gland secretions of the harvester ants Pogonomyrmex barbatus, P. rugosus and P. maricopa were investigated. The glandular blends exhibit species specific patterns, but more importantly, based on indiviual profiles of Dufour gland contents of colony members it is possible to separate the colonies from each other in each species. It is possible that these collective colony specific cues serve as longer lasting trunk route markers. Behavioral tests demonstrate that workers of P. rugosus prefer homing routes marked by members of their own colony to routes marked by a foreign conspecific colony.     

Cleanup Options for Navajo Abandoned Uranium Mines

This article summarizes the current status of known contamination arising from abandoned uranium mines (AUMs) within the Navajo Nation and examines the options for addressing the elevated risks to health that AUM waste poses to the people of the Navajo Nation. More specifically, this article provides the following:

1. An overview of past uranium mining conducted on the Navajo Nation, the current status of AUM waste within the Navajo Nation, and the human health risks associated with uranium exposure.
2. A discussion of Navajo Fundamental Law, the Diné (the Navajo People) Uranium Remediation Advisory Commission, and the Navajo Nation Department of Justice's position regarding institutional controls and cleanup of AUMs.
3. A summary of cleanup actions taken to date to address AUM waste and the lessons learned from such actions.
4. Options for cleanup of AUM waste consistent with Diné Fundamental Law, the Diné Natural Resources Protection Act of 2005, and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA).

The information summarized in this article was previously presented as an “Initial White Paper on Cleanup Options for Navajo Abandoned Uranium Mines,” prepared with participation from multiple stakeholders including the Navajo Nation Environmental Protection Agency (NNEPA), the Navajo Nation Department of Justice (NNDOJ), and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA). ©2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Filter light attenuation as a surrogate for elemental carbon

Light attenuation (b(att)) measured from filter light transmission is compared with elemental carbon (EC) measurements for more than 180,000 collocated PM2.5 (particulate matter [PM] < or = 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter) and PM10 (PM < or = 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter) samples from nearly 200 U.S. locations during the past 2 decades. Although there are theoretical reasons for expecting highly variable relationships between b(att) and EC (such as the effects of "brown carbon" and iron oxides in PM2.5), reasonable correlations are found. These correlations are not a strong function of season or location (e.g., rural vs. urban). Median EC concentrations can be predicted from filter transmittance measurements to within +/- 15-30%. Although EC predicted from b(att) shows larger uncertainties (30-60%), especially at concentrations less than 0.3 microg/m3, the consistent mass absorption efficiency (sigm(att)) derived from the regression analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using b(att) as a surrogate for EC. This study demonstrates that a constant factor of 0.1 g/m2 (equivalent to the 10 m2/g sigma(att) used in the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments chemical extinction formula) can be used to estimate EC concentrations from b(att) through a Teflon-membrane filter sample. Greater accuracy is achieved with site-specific sigma(att) derived from a period with collocated EC measurements.